MUST-READS

• End of Assad rule will reshape region’s balance of power

  Assad will forever be remembered as the man who violently repressed peaceful protests against his regime in 2011, which led to a civil war. More than half a million people were killed, six million others became refugees. With the help of Russia and Iran, he crushed the rebels, and survived. Russia used its formidable air power while Iran sent military advisors to Syria and Hezbollah, the militia it supports in neighbouring Lebanon, deployed its well-trained fighters. This did not happen this time. His allies, preoccupied with their own affairs, essentially abandoned him. Without their help, his troops were unable - and, in some places, apparently unwilling - to stop the rebels, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

• Experts react: Rebels have toppled the Assad regime. What’s next for Syria, the Middle East, and the world?

  The road to Damascus was surprisingly short. On Sunday, Syrian rebel groups took control of the capital after a lightning-fast offensive across the country. Dictator Bashar al-Assad abdicated power and left Syria, according to Russia, his most powerful patron. How did this happen so swiftly after such a long period of stasis in Syria’s thirteen-year civil war? And what comes next for Syria, the Middle East, and the external powers that have been shaping events there? Below, our experts answer these urgent questions and others.

• ‘Wait and see’: As Syrian regime falls, Middle East and US officials watch warily for what comes next

  “It’s really ‘wait and see,'” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates, said at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, adding that “ultimately salvaging the situation” would mean Syria emerges as a “credible nation-state.” After over a decade of civil war, the end of Assad’s regime came shockingly quickly. In just a few weeks, rebel forces swept through the country, and on Sunday morning local time captured Damascus. Per a Russian government statement, Assad had fled the country, and Syrian officials remaining inside the country have issued statements announcing they will work with the victorious forces to develop a new Syrian government.

• Trump’s return may be a boon for Netanyahu, but challenges abound in a changed Middle East

  “For Bibi, this is his dream. He wanted this,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname. “For Bibi, it’s too good to be true.” During Trump’s first term, he adopted policies largely favorable to Netanyahu. Trump broke with longstanding U.S. policy to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy to the contested city over Palestinian objections. He recognized Israel’s claim to the Golan Heights, which the international community considers occupied Syrian territory. He also turned a blind eye to Israeli settlement construction in the occupied West Bank and presented a peace plan that would leave dozens of settlements intact.

• Oil pares some gains after source says OPEC+ to delay output hike

  Oil prices pared some gains on Thursday after a source told Reuters OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output hike until April 2025. The planned delay comes as OPEC+, made up the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, tries to support prices as it wrestles with weak demand, notably from China, and rising supply outside the producer group. There remains the question of how long the delays could last, with this only the latest in a series. OPEC+ was originally due to begin raising output in October as part of a plan to gradually unwind the group's most recent layer of output curbs of 2.2 million barrels per day.

• The Remarkable Numbers Behind Saudi’s New Sustainable City
  New Murabba, Riyadh, which has published its first ESG strategy, will be home to 400,000 people, with 500,000m sq of retail, entertainment and schools. A press release says New Murabba’s decarbonisation strategy charts a “clear path toward a low-carbon future”, echoing the goals set out in the Saudi Commitment to Carbon Neutrality by 2060 and the Public Investment Fund’s pledge for operational net zero emissions by 2050.

• Perspective: Is a Changing Saudi Arabia Eager for Trump – or Not?

  The economic and social components of Vision 2030 fit into a broader attempt by the state to build a new national image for Saudi Arabia, both at home and abroad. The country is well situated both geographically and economically to speak to both East and West in a newly multipolar era. A long-running partnership with the United States throughout the Cold War and growing trade ties with China – in addition to the country’s importance as one of the world’s largest oil exporters – grant it a unique position in world affairs, as does the country’s significance to Muslims as the birthplace of Islam.

• Perspective: Is Saudi Arabia Serious About Joining the BRICS?

  At the start of 2024, the multilateral BRICS consortium of five emerging economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—underwent its first expansion in 13 years, admitting Ethiopia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Iran to its ranks. But Saudi Arabia, arguably the most sought-after and high-profile invitee, stopped short of joining the bloc as a full-fledged member. When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman skipped the annual BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan in October, it fueled speculation about whether Saudi Arabia could potentially refuse its invitation and content itself with observer or partner status instead. The Saudis have expressed interest in joining the BRICS for several years, starting with statements from the crown prince in 2022, but have also kept their intentions ambiguous.

• Saudi Arabia’s COP16 Presidency Seeks to Mobilize Private Sector for Land Restoration

  Today marked the launch of Land Day by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's presidency of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The event launches the first of seven scheduled Thematic Days aimed at sparking discussions and advancing negotiations on critical issues surrounding land degradation, desertification, and drought. A key topic of conversation highlighted the urgent need to mobilize private-sector investment to gather international resources for land restoration efforts. In light of this, Saudi Arabia's UNCCD presidency urged the private sector to significantly increase funding, especially after a UNCCD report revealed that only 6% of financial commitments for land resilience and drought recovery have come from private sources. The report further underscored the high cost of inaction, warning that the global economy could face a staggering loss of $23 trillion by 2050 due to continued land degradation, desertification, and drought.

• Saudi Arabia will be most competitive in hydrogen production: SABIC CEO

  In a session during the Saudi Green Initiative, he said that the company is working to remove carbon and carbon emissions from hydrogen and is coordinating with Saudi Aramco and other companies to produce ammonia, which has proven to be the most competitive. He indicated that there is a need for all partners and value chains to cooperate in technical works and others. Al-Faqeeh also indicated that the logistical aspect is important, pointing to the need for an integrated logistics services chain for hydrogen producers and consumers, as well as financing and more time for the project to become successful.

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