MUST-READS

• Gulf sovereign wealth funds drive $36bn+ mega-deal boom as UAE, Saudi buck global M&A slowdown

  Strategic inbound and domestic M&A activity in the region surged 88 per cent year-on-year to reach $36 billion during the first 10 months of 2024, according to new research from Bain & Company, contrasting sharply with more modest global deal growth of 7 per cent. “The Middle East’s exceptional M&A growth underscores the region’s transformation into a global investment powerhouse,” Grégory Garnier, Middle East Head of Bain’s Private Equity and Sovereign Wealth Fund practices, told Arabian Business. The surge was particularly pronounced in key sectors throughout 2024, with energy and natural resources seeing a 140 per cent increase, technology investments rising 90 per cent, and advanced manufacturing services recording a remarkable 300 per cent growth compared to 2023.

• Debate: Will the downfall of Assad reignite Gulf Arab divisions?

  The sudden downfall of Bashar Al-Assad threatens to reignite competition in Syria between Gulf Cooperation Council member states (GCC). After years of estrangement with Damascus, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had since 2019 led an effort to normalize Arab relations with Assad. This culminated in Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League in 2023, backed by Saudi Arabia. Throughout that process, Qatar remained a holdout, refusing to engage with Assad. As forces backed by Qatar and Turkey are now in charge in Damascus, are we on a path of renewed tension among Gulf Arab states? Amwaj.media invited three experts to share their views.

• Oil turns lower after Trump says he’ll ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring the price down

  Crude oil futures fell Thursday after President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to cut their prices. U.S. crude oil fell 82 cents, or 1.09%, to close at $74.62 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent dropped 71 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $78.29 per barrel. Oil was higher on the session before Trump began speaking. Trump accused the Saudis and OPEC of fueling the war in Ukraine through high oil prices, claiming the fighting would end if they allowed global crude prices to fall. Russia is one of the largest oil exporters in the world and the revenues from those sales support its war. “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” Trump said in a virtual address to the World Economic Forum. “If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately.”

• Clampdown begins on Saudi’s unlicensed hospitality

  Travel and tourism service providers and booking platforms have been ordered by Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Tourism to remove unlicensed hospitality facilities from their listings or “face penalties”.  The ruling, which came into effect from January 1, is to ensure outlets offering hospitality meet a certain standard, the ministry said in a statement.  It urged all establishments to obtain or renew their licences or face fines of up to SAR1 million ($267,000) and/or closure.  Violators may also face public shaming, the ministry said in a statement on the Saudi Press Agency.

• 2024 a year of unthinkable events that turned Middle East upside down

  The unthinkable in the troubled Middle East happened in 2024, with a major geopolitical shift after the stunning collapse of the Syrian regime at the hands of Islamist rebels. And Iran lost its foothold in the region, as did its most powerful military arm, Lebanon's Hezbollah. It was also a year of human tragedies in Gaza amid Israel's continued military offensive that killed nearly 45,000 people, including 17,000 children, and displaced 1.9 million, while 11,000 are thought to be buried under the rubble.

• Window closing for Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal before Trump takes office

  Israeli and U.S. officials involved in the negotiations for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal tell Axios they are concerned that the odds of an agreement before President Trump takes office are slim. Trump threatened that there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas did not release the hostages held in Gaza by Jan. 20. President Biden also made mediating a deal a top priority for his final months in office. It isn't clear what Trump meant by "hell to pay." A source close to the president-elect said there is no plan for what to do if Trump's deadline is crossed.

• Saudi Arabia leave it late to down Yemen in Gulf Cup

  Saudi Arabia came back in dramatic fashion to defeat Yemen 3-2 on Wednesday to keep their hopes of advancing to the semifinals of the 26th edition of the Arabian Gulf Cup very much alive. After losing to Bahrain in the opening match of Group B, the Green Falcons needed the victory and got it — but only just. Amazingly, Yemen, ranked 99 places below their neighbors at 158 in the world, were two goals ahead by the half hour at the Sulaibikhat Stadium in Kuwait. The first came in the eighth minute. Abdulwasea Al-Matari was given plenty of space to cross from the left for Harwan Al-Zubaidi to arrive at the middle of the six yard box just before Ali Al-Bulaihi to send a header into the net. It was Yemen’s first goal against Saudi Arabia in eight Gulf Cup games

• IEA and Opec agree on one thing: 2024 demand was down

  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) traditionally diverge strongly in their forecasts for the oil markets. While this is still the case – the IEA’s 2024 forecast for oil demand growth is about half that of its oil producing rival – the duo’s latest monthly reports do at least agree on one thing: that demand this year has been less than they previously estimated. The IEA on Thursday said in its monthly report that while growth in China has slowed, emerging Asia will continue to lead gains in 2024 and 2025.

• Inside story: Hezbollah, Iran and the downfall of Assad

  According to one high-ranking regional diplomatic source, Assad’s recent visit to Moscow was a turning point. While the Syrian leader was in Russia, forces led by the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) unexpectedly seized Aleppo without a fight. Upon his return to Syria, Assad is said to have expressed anger toward his army. In private meetings, Amwaj.media has learned, he lambasted his commanders as corrupt and untrustworthy—describing his army as a collection of “thieves” who cannot be relied upon. While Assad’s Russian host and counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had promised assistance, the senior regional source suggested that this support was limited to ensuring a safe exit. Given that Assad and his wife are now apparently in Russia, this promise has been kept—at least for now.

• Assad’s downfall is a humbling blow to Russia. How will it affect Putin’s prestige?

  Almost exactly seven years ago, President Vladimir Putin stood with Russian troops at their air base in Syria and proudly declared victory over “terrorists” in that country as part of the Kremlin’s military intervention to prop up the government of Bashar Assad amid a civil war. This weekend, those hard-won gains seemed a distant memory. Assad hastily fled to Moscow as his power crumbled during a lightning offensive by rebels that his main international allies, Russia and Iran, were unable to stem. The Kremlin’s failure to prevent Assad’s swift downfall has exposed limits of Russia’s power and dented its international clout at a pivotal stage of its war in Ukraine.

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