MUST-READS

• The Impact of the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement on Middle East Conflicts

  On 10 March, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations as part of a Chinese-sponsored initiative that appears aimed at reducing tensions across the Middle East. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of the implications for the region’s many flashpoints.

• Opinion: The Limits of Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement

  This, however, does not mean that Iran and Saudi Arabia cannot achieve détente or maintain normal diplomatic relations. In fact, the two nations experienced relatively cordial relations during much of the tenures of Iranian Presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997) and Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), and maintained normal diplomatic ties until January 2016 when a mob raided the Saudi diplomatic premises in Iran to protest the Saudi execution of a high-profile Shiite cleric. Although the recent Chinese-brokered diplomatic rapprochement does not end Saudi-Iranian rivalry, it has the potential to prevent direct, militarized disputes and help bring peace and stability to the current conflict and rivalry zones in the region, most notably in Yemen and Syria.

• What Does Saudi-Iranian Détente Mean for the UAE’s Regional Ambitions

  Although most regional actors regard any progress toward regional de-confliction favorably and recognize some critical sectors—such as the security of energy infrastructure and commercial waterways—as a collective interest, each actor has its specific reasons to pursue appeasement instead of head-on confrontation with Iran. Tellingly, Riyadh is not alone in extending an olive branch to Tehran. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has also suffered poor historical relations with the Islamic Republic, has sought to mend fences with its quarrelsome neighbor since early 2021.

• ‘Win-win’: Washington is just fine with the China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal

  “Not everything between the U.S. and China has to be a zero-sum game,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East panel. Plus, he said, better relations between Riyadh and Tehran means that there will be less conflict in the region, which would lower the chance of the United States getting dragged into a fighting in the Middle East. “I don’t know why we would perceive there to be a downside to de-escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.”

• Saudi-Iranian ties: A history of ups and downs

  The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met in China for the first formal meeting of their most senior diplomats in more than seven years, Saudi state-run Al Ekhbariya television said, under a deal to revive ties between the regional superpowers. After years of hostility that fuelled conflicts across the Middle East, Tehran and Riyadh agreed to end their diplomatic rift and re-open embassies in a major deal facilitated by China last month.

• Saudi-Iran deal spurs wider normalization wave

  The meeting is part of a wider wave of normalization between the Saudi-led camp and the Iranian axis in the Middle East in recent months in an effort to de-escalate tensions and end regional conflicts, including the war in Yemen.

• Riyadh’s Motivations Behind the Saudi-Iran Deal

  Turning the page on conflict with Iran will not be easy, even if the two countries respect the rules that they agreed on in Beijing. Riyadh will need to manage the complex link between Iran’s expectations for economic dividends from de-escalation with Saudi Arabia and the escalation of U.S.-led sanctions on economic cooperation with Iran. It will also need to mitigate potential spillover from Israel’s shadow war with Iran, Iran’s competing relationship with the United Arab Emirates, and adverse actions from Iran’s revolutionary guard and Iranian-backed militias across the region. For the time being, it seems that both governments in Riyadh and Teheran are determined to move closer.

• Unexpected beneficiary: The implications of the China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal for Pakistan

  For Pakistan, in particular, the tempering of the protracted Saudi-Iran rivalry could not only help lessen long-running domestic sectarian frictions but also alleviate pressure on Pakistani decisionmakers to involve Islamabad in contentious proxy tussles elsewhere in the Muslim world, as happened in Yemen. That said, even if the still fragile Saudi-Iranian rapprochement holds, Pakistan’s ability to improve its ties with the Islamic Republic will still be kept in check by concerns over further antagonizing the U.S.

• China’s Xi speaks with Saudi crown prince, supports Saudi-Iran talks

  China's President Xi Jinping spoke by phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, discussing a wide range of subjects including supporting follow-up talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, state media CCTV reported on Tuesday. Xi recently helped broker a surprise deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Middle East rivals, earlier this month to restore diplomatic ties, in a display of China's growing influence in the region which is being warily watched by the United States.

• The GCC Is On Board with the Saudi-Iran Agreement

  Conditions in the Gulf suggest that there are some grounds for optimism that a reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia might have positive spillover effects for the region. The GCC is moving beyond the most difficult decade in its 42-year history, which was marred by serious disagreements among its member states in 2014, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar for a nine-month period, and again between June 2017 and January 2021, when the same three states, along with Egypt, placed Qatar under a political and economic blockade, the longest and deepest intra-Gulf rift in decades.

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