MUST-READS

• Saudi-PIF backed Umm Al Qura moves ahead with IPO to support $26bn Masar project in Makkah

  The IPO proceeds are to be deployed for funding the infrastructure, land settlements, and development of the MASAR Destination, a major Makkah redevelopment project valued at $26.66 billion (SAR 100 billion). The company said it plans to offer 130.8 million new shares, or 9.09 per cent of its post-increase capital, Reuters reported. Spanning 1.2 million square meters, MASAR aims to enhance Makkah’s infrastructure with hotels, residential units, retail spaces, and cultural centres, according to its website. The Saudi Exchange granted conditional approval on December 8, 2024, while the Capital Market Authority (CMA) approved the company’s IPO on December 24, 2024, allowing it to raise funds for land settlements, infrastructure, and project expansion.

• Oil prices: The US is in a ‘delicate dance’ with Saudi Arabia

  "Ultimately, we're going to see the seasonal dance: Gas prices are going to go up this spring regardless of tariffs or not, they're going to go back down in the fall," De Haan tells Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton. "And I think seasonally looking at where we are for the year, for gas prices, we anticipate a yearly national average of about $3.22 a gallon, which would be a modest or even slight improvement of about $0.11 compared to 2024."

• Saudi crown prince receives Germany’s president in Riyadh

  Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier at Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh on Monday.  The two leaders held an official session of talks after the crown prince hosted a reception ceremony in honor of the president.  Prince Mohammed and Steinmeier discussed relations between their countries and ways to support and enhance them, Saudi Press Agency reported. Regional and international developments and efforts made with regard to them were also discussed.  Steinmeier arrived in the Kingdom on Sunday evening.

• Saudi Arabia cracks down on employers over health insurance violations
  The Saudi Arabia Council of Health Insurance (CHI) has announced penalties against several employers for failing to meet mandatory health insurance obligations for their employees and their eligible family members. These actions follow previous warnings urging compliance with Saudi Arabia’s Health Insurance Law. Under Article 14 of the law, employers who fail to provide health coverage or neglect to pay insurance premiums must settle any outstanding amounts and may face additional fines. The penalties can reach up to the equivalent of an annual premium per insured individual. In certain cases, noncompliant employers may also be restricted from hiring new workers on a temporary or permanent basis.

• Gulf sovereign wealth funds drive $36bn+ mega-deal boom as UAE, Saudi buck global M&A slowdown

  Strategic inbound and domestic M&A activity in the region surged 88 per cent year-on-year to reach $36 billion during the first 10 months of 2024, according to new research from Bain & Company, contrasting sharply with more modest global deal growth of 7 per cent. “The Middle East’s exceptional M&A growth underscores the region’s transformation into a global investment powerhouse,” Grégory Garnier, Middle East Head of Bain’s Private Equity and Sovereign Wealth Fund practices, told Arabian Business. The surge was particularly pronounced in key sectors throughout 2024, with energy and natural resources seeing a 140 per cent increase, technology investments rising 90 per cent, and advanced manufacturing services recording a remarkable 300 per cent growth compared to 2023.

• A Gaza family’s journey home to the ruins

  Israel began its military campaign in Gaza in response to the Oct. 7, 2023 attack when Hamas gunmen killed around 1,200 people in border communities and seized about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s assault, with the declared goal of destroying Hamas, levelled swathes of the tiny enclave driving nearly all its inhabitants from their homes and killing more than 47,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian health authorities. Early in the campaign, Israel ordered civilians to leave the north. Most did so. Those who left were barred from returning until last month’s deal for a ceasefire and hostage release.

• Saudi Arabia conducts military exercises with 15 countries at Air Warfare Center

  Some of the Kingdom’s prominent military branches are participating in the drills, including forces from the Presidency of State Security and the Saudi Arabian National Guard. The drills started this week at the Air Warfare Center, a military air facility located at King Abdulaziz Air Base in Dhahran in eastern Saudi Arabia. Maj. Gen. Pilot Mohammed bin Ali Al-Omari, the exercise commander, said that the drills would consist of lectures and missions for air, technical, and support crews, to improve readiness and combat capability.

• Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy records best performance since 2014 in January, says PMI

  Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy started 2025 on a high as business conditions improved substantially. This improvement was largely due to the fastest increase in total new orders since June 2011, which encouraged rapid expansions in activity and stocks. The headline seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 60.5 in January, from 58.4 in December. Not only did the index signal a considerable expansion in operating conditions at the start of 2025, but it was also at its highest since September 2014. “This strong performance underscores the resilience of the non-oil private sector, fueled by surging new orders and a significant rise in business output,” stated Naif Al-Ghaith PhD, chief economist at Riyad Bank.

• Will GCC get caught in a global trade war crossfire?
  A recent analysis by Capital Economics highlights the consequences of these tariffs and their broader implications for global trade dynamics. The administration's agenda to safeguard American jobs and reduce the trade deficit has led to these tariffs, which could increase the costs of essential materials like steel and aluminum. For GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this could slow down key infrastructure projects aimed at economic diversification. The immediate concern for GCC nations is not only the direct impact of US tariffs but also potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, especially China and the European Union. Such tit-for-tat escalations could further complicate global trade dynamics. Sectors most vulnerable to this trade war include construction, real estate, and manufacturing. Many GCC nations are investing heavily in infrastructure projects as part of their Vision 2030 initiatives. Rising material costs could hinder progress; Saudi Arabia's ambitious NEOM project, for instance, may face delays or budget overruns due to increased raw material costs driven by US tariffs.

• GCC should target tariff-free food deals with Trump

  Since China is the US’s third-biggest export destination for food and agricultural products after Canada and Mexico, Beijing may retaliate by imposing tariffs on US imports. This would hit the US farming industry hard, as it needs export markets for soy, corn, wheat and cotton. It would also come at a time when China has already significantly decreased food imports from the US. In parallel, many observers think that the second Trump administration is likely to strengthen the US dollar. A strong dollar will make US grains more expensive, resulting in a supply shock in the Midwest, a Republican stronghold.

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