MUST-READS

• Why Gulf Arab states and Turkey eye key roles in ending Ukraine war

  The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, has profoundly affected global geopolitics. Despite numerous mediation efforts, Gulf Arab states and Turkey have emerged as key players in navigating the crisis and acting as relatively neutral mediators. Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18 hosted Russian and US officials for talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The four-and-a-half-hour meeting marked the most extensive dialogue between the two sides since the conflict began in 2022. While Riyadh facilitated the contentious session, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky flew to Turkey, his second stop after visiting the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—another influential actor that is engaging with both Kyiv and Moscow. The flurry of visits by Russian, Ukrainian and US officials to Turkey and Gulf Arab capitals underscore the growing influence these regional states have. Driven by their own national interests, Ankara and Gulf states are positioning themselves to play a dominant role in the resolution of the Ukraine war, each seeking to secure significant gains from the outcome.

• Turkey moves to power Saudi Arabia’s defense-driven economic transformation

  Riyadh’s bold plans to localize 50% of its defense sector by 2030 are reshaping its approach to military-industrial development. In line with this vision, leading Turkish defense companies such as Baykar, ASFAT and ASELSAN are forging co-production agreements, paving the way for intensifying technology transfer, and expanding local manufacturing capabilities within the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s proposed 6B USD defense agreement with Turkey is a significant step forward for this vision. The deal is expected to include a diverse range of hardware—including warships, the  battle tank Altay, a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and potential collaboration on fifth-generation KAAN stealth fighters. These moves signal broader geostrategic aims beyond a shift in military procurement. In this context, the looming deal has the potential to radically transform Riyadh’s economic and industrial landscape.

• Iranians outraged as Turkey warns action in Syria will boomerang for Iran

  Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s warning that Iran will face instability if it makes any destabilizing move in Syria has sparked widespread condemnation in Tehran. As Iran’s longtime Syrian ally Bashar Al-Assad has been toppled by Turkish-backed Sunni Islamists, some Iranians say Ankara now believes that Tehran is too weak to stand up to Turkey.

• Syria’s rebuilding is bringing US partners Turkey and Saudi Arabia closer together

  Since Turkey ended a period of sharp tensions with several Gulf countries in 2021, Ankara has improved relations with all the countries in the region, and ties between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular have significantly improved. Ankara and Riyadh have put aside their past disputes and deepened their strategic relations. Now, the rebuilding of post-Assad Syria offers an opportunity for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to deepen their relations further. After becoming Syria’s new de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa visited Saudi Arabia and Turkey for his first two visits abroad. This is a testament to the important role both countries are expected to play in the new Syria. Sharaa is likely attempting to show the new Syrian leadership’s intent to distance itself from Iran and attract the Saudi financial investment that Syria desperately needs.

• Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Visit to Saudi Arabia and Turkey

  These visits are very important for al-Sharaa and Syria because they have the potential to shape the country’s future. First, al-Sharaa wants to increase his legitimacy as a leader and secure the support of regional countries for the new regime in Syria. His visits outside Syria as the country’s leader and his reception by prominent leaders in the region contribute to establishing his status and strengthening him. In this context, it is important to note that in recent weeks, many diplomatic delegations from around the world have visited Syria, including the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, who visited the country on January 30.

• Sinem Adar: Turkey’s Syria Challenge

  If you take the words of Turkish ruling elites at their face value, Turkey, first and foremost, in the mid and long term, is interested in the stabilization of Syria. It doesn't want a failed state at its border. It defines the future of Syria in three dimensions. It wants a Syria that does not cause a terror problem to its neighbors. It does not want a Syria that causes a threat to its neighbors. It wants a Syria that reflects its diverse demography. Ankara certainly sees this moment as a moment of opportunity. That can be seen in the last couple of weeks—there has been an interesting shift in the language of some officials, but also mainly in the experts that are close to the AKP. They use the words “paradigm shift” to refer to Syria.

• Turkey Aims for $6 Billion Weapons Deal With Saudi Arabia

  Turkey’s government is hoping to reach a $6 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia that could see the kingdom buy warships, tanks and missiles, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter. The agreement, which would involve Saudi Arabia joining a Turkish jet-building project, could be finalized during a visit by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the kingdom around March, the officials said. Turkey is trying to grow its defense industry and sees Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s biggest importers of arms, as a key market. The two countries signed a deal in 2023 for the Saudis to buy high-flying drones from Turkish company Baykar. Now, Ankara wants to sell its main battle tank, called Altay, to Saudi Arabia along with missile-defense systems, the officials said.

• Turkey exploits post-9/11 counterterrorism model to target critics in exile

  The abductions were the latest of more than 118 “renditions” that Turkey’s intelligence service, MIT, has orchestrated over the past decade, according to the spy agency’s website, making it one of the most aggressive practitioners of such extralegal operations. In Nairobi, MIT relied on Kenyan government operatives to carry out the abductions and was able to bypass Kenyan courts, according to the Western security officials who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation.

• Commentary: The balance of power is shifting in the Middle East – and it is Turkey’s ‘full moon’ on the rise

  Turkey played a pivotal role in the rebels’ surprising triumph. The operation unfolded with an extraordinary lack of the kind of violent destruction that has characterised Syrian campaigns over the past 13 years. Turkey provided intelligence, guidance and political cover. In the early years of the Syrian conflict, dozens of nations offered sporadic support to opposition groups, but Turkey’s commitment to the rebels in the north-western enclave near its border was consistent. Through ceasefires and frozen frontlines brokered since 2019, Turkey ensured that the rebels had the stability to rearm and reorganise. With Iran stretched thin and unable to provide resources and manpower due to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian networks in Lebanon and Syria, the collapse of Assad’s regime became not only possible but inevitable. Meanwhile, Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, offered only limited support to Assad.

• Turkey’s central bank expected to start cutting rates next week: Reuters poll
  Turkey's central bank is expected to start a cycle of interest rate cuts next week after eight months of steady policy, according to a Reuters poll on Thursday. Fourteen of 17 poll respondents forecast that the bank would cut its policy rate next Thursday, according to the poll. Three respondents expect the central bank to keep rates on hold until the first quarter. While most expected that the easing cycle will be launched this month, economists differed over the size of the first cut.

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