MUST-READS

• MENA Countries Face Complex Challenges

  Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries confront a complex mix of domestic, regional, and international challenges. The incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump is expected to bring major changes to US foreign policy towards MENA governments and in terms of American engagement on pressing regional issues. Wealthy and stable MENA countries are cautiously seeking opportunities with international partners outside the volatile region, primarily driven by domestic imperatives. The most dramatic development of late 2024 involved the spectacular collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where a rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) toppled his dictatorship after a grueling 14 years of civil war. Syrians now confront the challenges of forming an inclusive and stable government, addressing mounting humanitarian needs, and initiating economic recovery efforts.

• Saudi-Japanese Business Council Convenes in Riyadh with Over 80 Company Representatives

  The Saudi-Japanese Joint Business Council Meeting convened in Riyadh with the participation of Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih and Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Muto Yoji. The meeting saw attendance from over 80 representatives of companies and entities from both nations. The Japanese delegation included representatives from industrial and commercial companies, as well as financial institutions focusing on modern technologies with an interest in the Saudi market.

• How much more ‘hell’ can Gaza ‘pay’?

  President-elect Donald Trump has sounded a clear warning: If the remaining hostages in Hamas captivity in Gaza are not released by the time he takes office, there will be “all hell to pay.” But he has been less clear about what that threat entails. After all, more than 15 months of relentless war has devastated the Palestinian territory where Hamas holds sway, destroying much of its civilian infrastructure and immiserating its 2 million people.

• Final draft of Gaza truce deal presented after ‘breakthrough’
  Mediators gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday to end the war in Gaza, an official briefed on the negotiations said, after a midnight "breakthrough" in talks attended by envoys of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The official said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel's Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar's prime minister. The official said Steve Witkoff, who will become U.S. envoy when Trump returns to the U.S. presidency next week, attended the talks. A U.S. source said the outgoing Biden administration's envoy Brett McGurk was also there. "The next 24 hours will be pivotal to reaching the deal," the official said, characterising the draft as the outcome of a breakthrough reached in the early hours of Monday.

• US tightens its grip on AI chip flows across the globe

  The U.S. government said on Monday it would further restrict artificial intelligence chip and technology exports, divvying up the world to keep advanced computing power in the U.S. and among its allies while finding more ways to block China's access. The new regulations will cap the number of AI chips that can be exported to most countries and allow unlimited access to U.S. AI technology for America's closest allies, while also maintaining a block on exports to China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. The lengthy new rules unveiled in the final days of outgoing President Joe Biden's administration go beyond China and are aimed at helping the U.S. keep its dominant status in AI by controlling it around the world. New limits will be placed on advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used to power data centers needed to train AI models. Most are made by Santa Clara, California-based Nvidia, while Advanced Micro Devices also sells AI chips. Nvidia and AMD were down between 2% and 3% in premarket trading on Monday.

• French Gas and Power Utility Engie Seeks to Enter Saudi and Emirati Renewable Markets

  “The Gulf region has a serious potential,” with “very large auctions,” Francois-Xavier Boul, Engie’s managing director for renewables in the Middle East and North Africa regions, said in an interview on Thursday. Winning projects in the region is part of Engie’s strategy to accelerate its growth in renewables, he said. The French company, which already operates gas-fired power plants in the Gulf, faces fierce competition from energy rivals that have been tapping the region’s growing demand for clean power. The Saudi kingdom is building new industries to create jobs and develop an economy that’s less dependent on hydrocarbons as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan

• Saudi Arabia offers new benefits to importers and exporters

  The Saudi Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (ZATCA) announced the development of the “Saudi Authorized Economic Operator Program” in coordination with 14 government agencies. The program aims to further empower the logistics sector in Saudi Arabia, facilitate trade, ease procedures for importers and exporters, enhance their competitiveness, increase the efficiency of supply chains, and simplify and accelerate procedures while ensuring the continuation of business operations smoothly and with high flexibility, in addition to facilitating access to global markets. The participating entities in the program are the Ministries of Energy, Interior, Commerce, Environment, Water and Agriculture, Industry and Mineral Resources, Investment, Human Resources and Social Development, Transport and Logistics, and Health, the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization, the Communications, Space and Technology Commission, General Authority of Civil Aviation, Saudi ports Authority, and the Saudi Food and Drug Authority.

• Saudi Arabia plans to enrich and sell uranium: Energy minister

  “We will enrich it and we will sell it and we will do a ‘yellowcake,’” Prince Abdulaziz told a conference in Dhahran, referring to a powdered concentrate of the mineral used to prepare uranium fuel for nuclear reactors. It requires safe handling although it poses few radiation risks. Saudi Arabia has a nascent nuclear program that it wants to expand to eventually include uranium enrichment, a sensitive area given its role in nuclear weapons. Riyadh has said it wants to use nuclear power to diversify its energy mix. The Kingdom said last year it planned to scrap light-touch oversight of its nuclear facilities by the UN atomic watchdog and switch to regular safeguards by the end of 2024.

• Middle East investors turn to airports for safe returns

  “Airports are gateways to regions,” Linus Bauer, managing director of Singapore-based aviation consultancy BAA & Partners says. “By investing in them, Gulf investors secure influence over critical infrastructure in regions they seek to strengthen economic ties with, such as Europe, Africa and Southeast Asia.” Estimates suggest the global airport industry will be worth $194 billion in 2024. The Airports Council International projects that airport investment worldwide is likely to reach $2.4 billion by 2040. “The increasing interest from the Middle East is partly sparked by a desire to show their global credibility as much as the pure investment side,” says John Grant, a partner at the UK consultancy Midas Aviation and an AGBI columnist.

• Expectations for a Second Trump Administration’s Impacts on Business in the Middle East

  Much has been written about how Donald Trump’s election will affect the political and security outlook for the Middle East, including with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Iranian nuclear program, and U.S. ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. But how will a second Trump term affect the economic and business outlook for the region? While President-elect Trump is defined most by his unpredictability, we believe a few themes are likely to play out over the next four years partly as a result of the U.S. presidential election: 1) Continued downward pressure on oil prices, and therefore on Gulf budgets and government spending; 2) Greater openness to and appeals for foreign direct investment in the U.S. from Middle Eastern sovereigns and others from the region; and 3) A more complicated landscape of controls on exports to the region of sensitive U.S. technology such as artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, weapons and advanced fighter jets, and civilian nuclear energy.

  • DGA Group - Expectations for a Second Trump Administration's Impacts on Business in the Middle East
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